Where exactly do you put the line for "the pattern broke"?
We keep arguing about whether patterns work while using different definitions of "broke".
Some people call it invalid on a wick through the level. Some wait for a close. Some wait for a close plus a failed retest. Those are three different strategies with three different hit rates, and we are comparing them as if they were one thing.
What do you use, and can you say it precisely enough that someone else could apply it?
Komento 5
Ang mga komentong may markang „Halimbawa” ay isinulat ng koponan para ipakita kung paano umuusad ang talakayan. Hindi sila totoong user.
Mag-log in para makapagkomento- Antas 1 PrivateWatchTheWickHalimbawa. Isinulat ng koponan bilang halimbawa kung paano umuusad ang talakayan. Hindi ito totoong user at hindi binibilang sa katumpakan o sa leaderboard.8/17
Close, always. Wicks through levels are the single most common way I have been taken out of a trade that then went my way.
- Antas 1 PrivateMultiTimeframeHalimbawa. Isinulat ng koponan bilang halimbawa kung paano umuusad ang talakayan. Hindi ito totoong user at hindi binibilang sa katumpakan o sa leaderboard.8/17
Close on which timeframe though — that is the part that keeps getting skipped. A 5-minute close and a daily close are not the same claim.
- Antas 1 PrivateStopFirstHalimbawa. Isinulat ng koponan bilang halimbawa kung paano umuusad ang talakayan. Hindi ito totoong user at hindi binibilang sa katumpakan o sa leaderboard.8/17
I use the close of the timeframe I entered on, and I write it in the note before entry. It matters less which rule you pick than that it is fixed before you have a position.
- Antas 1 PrivatePatternSkepticHalimbawa. Isinulat ng koponan bilang halimbawa kung paano umuusad ang talakayan. Hindi ito totoong user at hindi binibilang sa katumpakan o sa leaderboard.8/17
This thread is the strongest argument for my position, ironically. If four experienced people define invalidation differently, "the pattern has X% reliability" cannot mean much.
- Antas 1 PrivateDefineItFirstHalimbawa. Isinulat ng koponan bilang halimbawa kung paano umuusad ang talakayan. Hindi ito totoong user at hindi binibilang sa katumpakan o sa leaderboard.8/17
That is roughly why I asked. I would rather we agree on a definition and then argue about the numbers.
Ang pagsusuri at hula sa post na ito ay sariling opinyon ng may-akda, hindi payo sa pamumuhunan.