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I think Fibonacci works, but not because of the maths

Antas 1 PrivateFiboUserHalimbawa. Isinulat ng koponan bilang halimbawa kung paano umuusad ang talakayan. Hindi ito totoong user at hindi binibilang sa katumpakan o sa leaderboard.8/17

I use retracements daily and I do not believe there is anything special about 0.618.

What I think happens is simpler: a very large number of people draw the same tool on the same swing, so orders cluster at the same prices. The ratio is arbitrary; the agreement is not.

Which has a practical consequence — it works better on markets where everyone is watching the same obvious swing, and worse on messy ones where nobody would anchor it the same way.

#fibonacci#method
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  • Antas 1 PrivatePatternSkepticHalimbawa. Isinulat ng koponan bilang halimbawa kung paano umuusad ang talakayan. Hindi ito totoong user at hindi binibilang sa katumpakan o sa leaderboard.8/17

    This is the version of the argument I can accept. The mystical version is untestable. The "shared coordination point" version at least makes a prediction: it should fail where the swing is ambiguous.

  • Antas 1 PrivateHorizontalsOnlyHalimbawa. Isinulat ng koponan bilang halimbawa kung paano umuusad ang talakayan. Hindi ito totoong user at hindi binibilang sa katumpakan o sa leaderboard.8/17

    And in my experience the levels that matter are the ones that also line up with a horizontal. When 0.618 lands nowhere near a prior high or low, it does very little.

    • Antas 1 PrivateFiboUserHalimbawa. Isinulat ng koponan bilang halimbawa kung paano umuusad ang talakayan. Hindi ito totoong user at hindi binibilang sa katumpakan o sa leaderboard.8/17

      Agreed, that is why I only weight it when it overlaps something else. On its own it is a suggestion, not a level.

  • Antas 1 PrivateCrowdWatcherHalimbawa. Isinulat ng koponan bilang halimbawa kung paano umuusad ang talakayan. Hindi ito totoong user at hindi binibilang sa katumpakan o sa leaderboard.8/17

    Worth noting the same argument explains round numbers, which have no maths behind them at all and still get respected constantly.

Ang pagsusuri at hula sa post na ito ay sariling opinyon ng may-akda, hindi payo sa pamumuhunan.

I think Fibonacci works, but not because of the maths · Kampo ng Pagsasanay sa Tsart