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Where exactly do you put the line for "the pattern broke"?

Level 1 PrivateDefineItFirstExample. Written by staff as a worked example of discussion. Not a real user, and not counted in accuracy or rankings.8/17

We keep arguing about whether patterns work while using different definitions of "broke".

Some people call it invalid on a wick through the level. Some wait for a close. Some wait for a close plus a failed retest. Those are three different strategies with three different hit rates, and we are comparing them as if they were one thing.

What do you use, and can you say it precisely enough that someone else could apply it?

#definitions#method
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Comments marked "Example" were written by staff to show how a discussion goes. They are not real users.

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  • Level 1 PrivateWatchTheWickExample. Written by staff as a worked example of discussion. Not a real user, and not counted in accuracy or rankings.8/17

    Close, always. Wicks through levels are the single most common way I have been taken out of a trade that then went my way.

    • Level 1 PrivateMultiTimeframeExample. Written by staff as a worked example of discussion. Not a real user, and not counted in accuracy or rankings.8/17

      Close on which timeframe though — that is the part that keeps getting skipped. A 5-minute close and a daily close are not the same claim.

  • Level 1 PrivateStopFirstExample. Written by staff as a worked example of discussion. Not a real user, and not counted in accuracy or rankings.8/17

    I use the close of the timeframe I entered on, and I write it in the note before entry. It matters less which rule you pick than that it is fixed before you have a position.

  • Level 1 PrivatePatternSkepticExample. Written by staff as a worked example of discussion. Not a real user, and not counted in accuracy or rankings.8/17

    This thread is the strongest argument for my position, ironically. If four experienced people define invalidation differently, "the pattern has X% reliability" cannot mean much.

    • Level 1 PrivateDefineItFirstExample. Written by staff as a worked example of discussion. Not a real user, and not counted in accuracy or rankings.8/17

      That is roughly why I asked. I would rather we agree on a definition and then argue about the numbers.

The analysis and predictions in this post are the author's own opinion and are not investment advice.

Where exactly do you put the line for "the pattern broke"? · Chart Training Camp